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Surprising findings · a modelled comparison, stated in the open
The ZIP codes that outlive their incomes
Across 28,882 US ZIP codes, median household income predicts about a quarter of the variation in life expectancy — 2.7 more years of expected life for every doubling of income. This page names the places that most escape that line, in both directions, using only ZIP codes whose estimates are reliable enough to name.
Life expectancy: CDC USALEEP, 2010–2015Income: Census ACS, 2020–202428,882 ZIP codes compared5,842 clear the reliability floor
What a gap between income and life expectancy actually records
These are descriptions of places, never of the people who live in them — a ZIP code where life expectancy runs behind its income records how a place was built, served, and invested in, not a verdict on its residents. And a ZIP-level pattern says nothing about any individual household: plenty of people in every ZIP code below outlive every number on this page.
ZIP codes whose estimated life expectancy most exceeds what income predicts
| ZIP code | Residents | Median household income | Estimated life expectancy (95% range) | Expected from income | Years beyond expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52246in Iowa City, IA | 22,308 | $62,521 | 85.8 ± 2.3 | 78.2 | +7.6 y |
| 12833Greenfield Center, NY | 5,316 | $102,832 | 87.6 ± 3.8 | 80.2 | +7.4 y |
| 16828Centre Hall, PA | 5,000 | $76,468 | 86.0 ± 3.2 | 79.0 | +7.0 y |
| 34119in Naples, FL | 36,807 | $113,391 | 87.5 ± 2.3 | 80.6 | +6.9 y |
| 10034in New York, NY | 37,758 | $67,754 | 85.4 ± 2.6 | 78.5 | +6.9 y |
| 11370in East Elmhurst, NY | 30,267 | $76,009 | 85.6 ± 2.3 | 79.0 | +6.6 y |
| 56352Melrose, MN | 6,112 | $73,721 | 85.5 ± 3.2 | 78.9 | +6.6 y |
| 32821in Orlando, FL | 26,161 | $69,348 | 85.1 ± 2.3 | 78.6 | +6.5 y |
| 10032in New York, NY | 55,610 | $56,829 | 84.2 ± 1.9 | 77.8 | +6.4 y |
| 33154Surfside, FL | 14,572 | $89,563 | 86.0 ± 2.2 | 79.6 | +6.4 y |
Only ZIP codes with at least 5,000 residents and a published standard error of 2.0 years or less are named (the ± figures in the table are 95% ranges — 1.96 × that standard error), and every gap shown is larger than 1.96 × the ZIP’s own standard error. 5,842 of 28,882 compared ZIP codes clear this floor.
ZIP codes whose estimated life expectancy most trails what income predicts
| ZIP code | Residents | Median household income | Estimated life expectancy (95% range) | Expected from income | Years behind expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41014in Covington, KY | 7,392 | $61,382 | 67.6 ± 1.9 | 78.2 | −10.5 y |
| 15222in Pittsburgh, PA | 5,725 | $114,167 | 70.8 ± 3.1 | 80.6 | −9.8 y |
| 74960Stilwell, OK | 11,971 | $47,151 | 67.9 ± 1.0 | 77.1 | −9.2 y |
| 63107in St. Louis, MO | 8,909 | $43,625 | 67.8 ± 2.7 | 76.8 | −9.0 y |
| 19125in Philadelphia, PA | 25,140 | $109,554 | 71.7 ± 1.4 | 80.4 | −8.7 y |
| 43223in Columbus, OH | 28,187 | $46,911 | 68.4 ± 1.0 | 77.1 | −8.7 y |
| 75215in Dallas, TX | 18,895 | $45,557 | 68.5 ± 1.5 | 77.0 | −8.5 y |
| 21223in Baltimore, MD | 19,572 | $45,840 | 68.8 ± 1.1 | 77.0 | −8.2 y |
| 10044in New York, NY | 11,520 | $103,347 | 72.1 ± 2.0 | 80.2 | −8.1 y |
| 37403in Chattanooga, TN | 6,413 | $81,136 | 71.2 ± 2.7 | 79.3 | −8.1 y |
Read this table with its dates. Life expectancy here describes 2010–2015; income describes 2020–2024. In ZIP codes that changed quickly in between, the two numbers partly describe different residents, and some of the gap is that change, not a health outcome.
23,040 compared ZIP codes are not named on this page — their estimates are too uncertain, their populations too small, or their gap sits inside its own uncertainty range. They are withheld rather than shown shaky; the full gated dataset is in the CSV.
How much of our Score income accounts for — and what it doesn’t
Cite this finding
The permalink /insights/findings/outlive-their-incomes/2024-390451dd resolves to this exact release and never changes — it will keep serving these exact figures after the data updates.
How this was computed
- Sources and measurement windows. Life expectancy at birth: CDC USALEEP, the 2010–2015 abridged life tables — small-area estimates built from actual death certificates, the most recent ZIP-level release that exists. Income: Census ACS 5-year, 2020–2024. Both windows travel with every number.
- Universe. 28,882 ZIP codes carry both measures and a nonzero population; nothing else enters the model.
- What “expected from income” means. The life expectancy a ZIP code’s income alone would predict: one straight line fit through all 28,882 ZIP codes (a standard least-squares fit of life expectancy against income, with income on a doubling scale): every doubling of income adds 2.74 expected years. For the record, the exact fitted line is expected life expectancy = 34.61 + 3.949 × ln(median household income) — every “expected” value on this page comes from that one equation, so anyone can recompute any ZIP. The line explains about a quarter of the ZIP-to-ZIP differences (R² = 0.231); its typical miss is 2.8 years — which is exactly why the exceptions are worth naming.
- The gap. Each ZIP’s estimated life expectancy minus its model-expected value, in years. Tables order by this gap.
- Reliability floor for naming a ZIP. At least 5,000 residents; a published standard error of 2.0 years or less; and a gap larger than 1.96 × that ZIP’s own standard error. 5,842 ZIP codes clear the floor; 23,040 are withheld rather than shown shaky.
- What this does and does not claim. A descriptive comparison of published estimates and modeled values across places — never a causal claim, and never a claim about any individual resident.
- Reproduce it. The full gated dataset is the CSV above; the method is published in full on the methodology page, and every threshold used here is stated in the steps above.